DETERMINATION AND APPLICATION OF FORECASTING METHOD FOR MEDICINE CONSUMPTION IN HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATION

Authors : Gökçen Çeliker, Nazife Öztürk, Rabia Nilüfer Ersoyoğlu

Pages : 235-241

Doi:10.34108/eujhs.1353450

View : 30 | Download : 40

Publication Date : 2024-07-25

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The aim of this research is to estimate the consumption of a selected medicine in a public hospital for the next 1-year period by choosing the most appropriate fore casting method. Kaptoril 5-mg tablets from January 2018 to December 2022 were examined. In this research, time series methods were applied to the existing data using the Minitab 18 program. Moving average, exponentials moothing, and Holt-Winters fore casting methods were used in this study. Error measures such as mean absolute error, mean absolute percent age error, and mean squared error were used to compare the methods. For Kaptoril 5 mg, the most appropriatedem and fore casting method according to error measures is the Multiplicative Holt-Winters Method. According to this method, the mean absolute percent age error is 37.23. According to the multiplic ative Holt-Winters model, the total medicine consumption in 2023 was found to be 145 tablets. This research shows that time series fore casting methods can be applied to help reliable decision making in stock management of medicines by making a sample application on a selected medicine in a public hospital.
Keywords : malzeme yönetimi, eczacılıkla ilgili ürünler, zaman serisi