Application of an Epidemic Model to Turkey Data and Stability Analysis for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors : Ömer Faruk GÖZÜKIZIL, Nejdet KÖKER

Pages : 1438-1445

Doi:10.16984/saufenbilder.980797

View : 23 | Download : 9

Publication Date : 2021-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread all over the world with a high rate of transmission. The main purpose of this article is to define an epidemic model for the Covid-19 pandemic, to apply it to Turkey`s data and to interpret it. Accordingly, a SEIR model was created to calculate the infected population and the number of deaths caused by this epidemic, and the stability of the model was examined. Since all the parameters affecting the stability cannot be calculated clearly, it cannot be expected to reach a realistic result. For this reason, a model was created with accessible parameters. Later, the diseased and non diseased equilibrium points of the model were discussed. The Hurwitz theorem is used to find the local stability of the model, while the Lyaponov function theory is used to investigate its global stability. Finally, some numerical results are given with the help of MATLAB program.
Keywords : SEIR Model, Covid 19 Pandemic, Stability