The Impact of the World Trade Uncertainty on International Trade: The Case of the Turkish Economy

Authors : Muhammed Şehid GÖRÜŞ, Mert AKYÜZ

Pages : 291-313

Doi:10.52836/sayistay.1282020

View : 165 | Download : 133

Publication Date : 2023-08-11

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :International trade can be affected by various economic events, including domestic and global developments, such as economic crises, exchange rate volatilities, natural resource explorations, and globalization. In addition, trade uncertainty is an important factor that affects the trade volume of an economy. Recently, trade uncertainty has increased episodically in the world with trade wars between the US and China, and this uncertainty has spilled over to other countries, thereby affecting trade volumes. This study attempts to understand and explain the role of World Trade Uncertainty insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(WTU); on both export and import in the Turkish economy for the period from 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Therefore, this study utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ARDL); bounds test. The research findings presented here reveal that there is a long-run nexus between the variables in both models. The results also show that an increase in WTU negatively affects export, while it has no statistically significant effect on Turkish import for the period examined.
Keywords : ARDL sınır testi, Türkiye, ithalat talep fonskiyonu, ihracat arz fonksiyonu, ticaret belirsizliği

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