Does Google Trends Search Interest Reflect Electric Vehicle Sales? Evidence from Germany

Authors : Nazlı Gamze Özel

Pages : 259-277

Doi:10.52642/susbed.1778632

View : 317 | Download : 827

Publication Date : 2025-12-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study analyzes the long-term relationship between sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Germany from January 2016 to March 2025 and consumer interest measured using Google Trends data. To this end, eight German search terms related to electric vehicles were selected and a single composite search interest index was created using Principal Component Analysis. Subsequently, unit root tests with structural breaks and multiple break cointegration tests were conducted. The findings can be summarized under three headings. First, the evidence reveals that search interest exhibits a significant long-term co-movement with both battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales. In particular, structural breaks were identified in the post-2020 period, coinciding with incentive mechanisms, energy crises, and policy changes. Second, the results indicate that the relationship varies in sensitivity across segments. Third, by demonstrating that Google Trends data serves as a leading indicator for tracking consumer interest in the electric vehicle market, the study shows that responses to policy and market shocks are reflected simultaneously in both digital interest and sales. These findings provide actionable insights for early signal generation and demand tracking in marketing strategies and public policies.
Keywords : Elektrikli Araç, Google Trends, Tüketici Arama İlgisi, Yapısal Kırılmalar, Eşbütünleşme, Bataryalı Elektrikli Araç, Şarj Edilebilir Hibrit Araç

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