THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATIONS IN EXCHANGE RATE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ON TOURISM INCOME: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Authors : Muharrem Selim KARAMAN, Nuri HACIEVLİYAGİL

Pages : 94-116

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Publication Date : 2023-03-19

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, the change in tourism income as a result of the stability outlook created by the changes in the current account deficit and exchange rate in Türkiye with the data between 2003:01 and 2021:06 is examined. The study has been examined with two different models due to the developments in the world and in Türkiye. As the first model structure, it was designed considering that there is no additional factor on Türkiye\`s economic and political structure. The second model, on the other hand, was created by taking into account the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Coronavirus);, which had the most impact on both Türkiye and the world economy and politics. Co-integration test and then Wald Granger causality test were applied. As a result of the research, it has been confirmed that there is a co-integration relationship between tourism income, current account deficit and exchange rate variables in both models.
Keywords : Tourism Income, Current Account Deficit, Exchange Rate, Maki Cointegration Test, Wald Granger Causality Test