The Growth Trends and Forecasting of Turkish Fishery Sector

Authors : Nevra Alhas Eroğlu, Bakiye Kılıç Topuz

Pages : 0-0

Doi:10.7161/omuanajas.1690292

View : 78 | Download : 357

Publication Date : 2026-02-06

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The aim of this research was to forecast Turkish fishery sector for an outlook of 2024-2028 period and introduce the growth trends in order to evaluate the fishery sector with policy implications. The fishery production, net export, processed product and per capita consumption series of 1981-2023 were used in projections and modelled with double exponential smoothing method. It was forecasted that production would increase by 13.9 % and reach 1,151,226 tons by 2028 with respect to 2023. Accordingly, net export would increase by 42.6 % and reach 237,989 tons by 2028 with respect to 2023. The forecasting results showed that processed product would reach 151,595 tons whereas per capita consumption would be 7.62 kg by 2028. The rise of both production and net export is expected to be resulted from aquaculture. On the other hand, slight change in processed product was caused by decreasing share of catching and rise of export. This study concluded that aquaculture support policy of Türkiye has significant impact and aquaculture would be key element of fishery production and net export in the near future. Therefore, the continuity and improvement of these policies is of vital importance.
Keywords : Balıkçılık, Tahmin, Çift üstel düzeltme, Politika, Türkiye

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