TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES

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Trakya Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi
Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES

Authors : Elvan Deniz

Pages : 33-43

View : 57 | Download : 35

Publication Date : 2025-06-29

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :With the increasing impact of globalization, foreign trade has become a strategic tool, particularly for developing countries, in fostering economic growth, encouraging technological advancement, and reducing external dependency. In this context, expanding the volume of foreign trade offers various opportunities for developing economies. Accordingly, a time series-based forecasting model was developed to generate projections for Turkey’s foreign trade, focusing on export and import values, using official annual trade data from 2013 to 2024. Within the scope of this study, six different statistical analysis methods were applied using Minitab 17 software. The error rates and resulting findings contribute to understanding the structural trends observed in Turkey’s foreign trade and provide forward-looking insights for investors. Therefore, the primary aim of this study is to emphasize the importance of time series analysis in economic decision-making processes and to offer a scientific contribution to macroeconomic planning strategies.
Keywords : İhracat, İthalat, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Dış Ticaret Tahmini

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