Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach

Authors : Barış Ülker

Pages : 181-193

View : 29 | Download : 18

Publication Date : 2025-06-17

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Tourism is a vital sector for Türkiye’s economy with its significant contributions, however, it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. This study examines the impact of Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER), Brent crude oil prices and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) on Türkiye’s travel income from 2003:Q1 to 2024:Q3. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to analyze both short and long-run effects across different quantiles to capture heterogeneous impacts. The results indicate that both REER and oil prices affects travel incomes in the long-run at upper quantiles however, they do not affect travel incomes in the short-run at any quantiles. The effects of the REER are negative while oil prices affect travel incomes positively. WUI shows a significant impact on tourism demand neither in long-run, nor in short-run at any quantiles. These findings reveal that keeping the exchange rate competitive and monitoring oil price fluctuations is crucial to maintain sustainable tourism demand for Türkiye Also, the policies should focus on long-term as temporary changes does not create significant effects.
Keywords : Turizm Talebi, Döviz Kurları, Petrol Fiyatları, Küresel Belirsizlik

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