Snow Avalanche Hazard and Risk Management at a Regional Scale in Türkiye: Detailed Analyses and Modeling Approaches in the Provinces of Bitlis, Van, and Antalya

Authors : Engin Yıldız, Zeliha Selek

Pages : 22-37

Doi:10.46810/tdfd.1720942

View : 212 | Download : 532

Publication Date : 2025-12-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Due to Türkiye\\\'s geographical features, avalanches frequently cause serious loss of life and property. Within the scope of this study, avalanche risk in selected pilot regions of Bitlis, Van, and Antalya was analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. In the study, fieldwork was initially conducted, and avalanche areas were identified using digital surface models. By conducting statistical analyses with meteorological data, avalanche fracture depths were calculated, and two-dimensional avalanche simulations were carried out using the RAMMS (Rapid Mass Movement Simulation) software. Avalanche hazard maps compliant with Austrian standards were created using the simulation results, and risk analyses were subsequently conducted. In the analysis conducted in the Gazi Bey neighborhood located in Bitlis, it was determined that 21 avalanche routes fall into the medium and high-risk categories. Although the risk level was calculated as low due to insufficient traffic data at the Van-Bahçesaray Karabet Pass, the overall avalanche threat in the region is high. In the Antalya Akdağ Ski Resort, the individual risk of death was found to be at tolerable level, but it was determined that 90% of the ski slopes were exposed to avalanche danger. The study emphasizes the necessity of implementing integrated engineering measures to reduce avalanche risk.
Keywords : Kar Çığı, Kar Çığı Risk Analizi, RAMMS Simülasyonu, Kar Çığı Tehlike Haritası, Afet Risk Yönetimi

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