REGIONAL CRIME ANALYSIS OF TURKEY: A TIME SERIES APPROACH

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Türkiye İstatistik Derneği Dergisi
Volume:8 Issue:1
REGIONAL CRIME ANALYSIS OF TURKEY: A TIME SERIES APPROACH

REGIONAL CRIME ANALYSIS OF TURKEY: A TIME SERIES APPROACH

Authors : Yunus Emre KARAMAOĞLU, Yılmaz AKDİ

Pages : 24-37

View : 49 | Download : 10

Publication Date : 2015-03-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, the most common types of crime in 7 diﬀerent geographical regions of Turkeyhave been analyzed via time-series approach. The purpose of the study is; to put forth the most appropriatetime series models for each geographical region and make forecasts for the crime rates. In the analysis; thecrime data obtained from oﬃcial sources covering the years 2001-2010 have been used. The stationarity of 7regions has been tested and the most appropriate time series model for each region has been determined. Thevalidity of the obtained time series models has been tested and the oﬃcial data for 2011 have been comparedwith the forecasts made. As a result, importance and eﬀectiveness of the forecasts obtained from the timeseries models were given. The availability of the time series approach to crime forecasting was shown forplanning security
Keywords : Time Series Analysis, Turkeys Crime Rates, Crime Prevention, Security, Forecast

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