AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE PHILLIPS CURVE WITH GENDER DIFFERENCES IN TÜRKİYE

Authors : Murat Ergül

Pages : 65-76

Doi:10.18092/ulikidince.1501027

View : 57 | Download : 54

Publication Date : 2025-02-12

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The potential existence and structure of the relationship between inflation and unemployment is a frequently examined topic in literature. A.W.H. Phillips (1958) explored the correlation between these two significant economic variables in the context of the United Kingdom, highlighting the trade-off relationship between them. This seminal work has led various economists to rigorously investigate the same phenomenon across different countries and country groups. The primary reason for this intense scrutiny is the assertion that monetary policies implemented in response to economic shocks may push these two variables in opposite directions. In this regard, the significant shocks experienced in Türkiye in recent years concerning inflation and unemployment have made it particularly intriguing to test the validity of the Phillips Curve for Türkiye. This study tests the validity of the Phillips Curve relationship for Türkiye. Utilizing monthly data from 2005 to 2023, the unemployment rates are modeled separately for male and female unemployment rates, distinguishing this study from others. The analysis employs the Johansen Cointegration Test and concludes that the Phillips Curve theory holds true for Türkiye. In light of the findings, there is a noteworthy presence of both a more significant and higher-level correlation between male unemployment rates and the producer price index.
Keywords : Phillips Eğrisi, İşsizlik, Enflasyon, Eşbütünleşme Testi