Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors

Authors : Ülge Taş

Pages : 80-87

Doi:10.58201/utsobilder.1484532

View : 41 | Download : 41

Publication Date : 2024-07-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Various policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, placing specific limits on different sectors, and impacting the environment and the economy. However, fossil-based energy systems are continuously developing in rapidly industrializing regions. Balancing the immediate costs of transitioning with the long-term benefits of sustainability is key in addressing the distribution of GHG emissions across sectors in Turkey from an economic perspective. This study aims to provide a future forecast and economic perspective on the distribution of GHG emissions by sectors in Turkey. Depending on this purpose, Econometric Views (EViews) 12 software was used to analyze the collected data. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used to predict future values. The study predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 5.5% in 2026 compared to 2022. The energy sector will continue to have the highest share of emissions, while the agricultural sector will experience the most significant increase. Additionally, emissions from industrial processes and product use are expected to rise, while emissions from waste are expected to decrease between 2022 and 2026.
Keywords : ARIMA, Ekonomik İyileştirme, Gelecek Tahmini, Sera Gazı Emisyonu, Karbon Emisyonunu Azaltın