- Uluslararası Yönetim Eğitim ve Ekonomik Perspektifler Dergisi
- Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2
- DYNAMICS OF INFLATION IN TURKİYE: EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER ADL COINTEGRATION TEST
DYNAMICS OF INFLATION IN TURKİYE: EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER ADL COINTEGRATION TEST
Authors : Bekir Eren
Pages : 201-217
View : 154 | Download : 226
Publication Date : 2025-12-25
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :The aim of this study is to reveal the factors affecting inflation in Türkiye through a structural break analysis. Using the Fourier ADL cointegration test, FMOLS estimator, and error correction model, the dynamics of inflation have been investigated for the period 2013Q1-2025Q2. This study introduces a significant innovation to the literature as the first study to utilize the Fourier ADL cointegration test, which considers structural breaks as a process. Furthermore, by examining expectations and various wage indicators together with other frequently used variables in the literature and considering structural changes in monetary policy in the model, the study contributes to the academic literature. The Fourier ADL cointegration test results indicate a strong and positive long-term relationship between inflation, expectations, and the exchange rate. However, no significant long-term relationship is found between inflation and wage indicators and the central bank funding rate. The estimated long-term cointegration coefficients also reveal that expectations and the exchange rate have a strong and positive effect on inflation. The error correction model results confirm this long-term relationship and show that expectations and the exchange rate are determinants of inflation also in the short term. Moreover, expectations have stronger impact. Furthermore, while the unconventional monetary policies implemented since the end of 2021 have positively impacted inflation, the renewed focus on price stability since the second half of 2023 has negatively impacted inflation. In this context, implementing reliable and transparent policies to manage expectations, increasing the communication of monetary policy, and strengthening the independence of the central bank may be beneficial in combating inflation.Keywords : Fourier ADL, yapısal kırılmalar, beklentiler, enflasyon.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL