ASSESSING THE FLUCTUATIONS OF MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES: EVIDENCE FROM ALGERIA

Authors : Dahmani MOHAMED DRIOUCHE, Attouchi MANEL

Pages : 17-28

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Publication Date : 2019-03-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The aim of this study is to examine the origin of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables in Algeria , using time series data over the extended period from 1990 to 2016. The results of principal components analysis indicate that the years from 2002 to 2007 are characterized by an increase in RGDP , exchange rate and exports, this rise due to the improvement of the Algerian economy which hails from the evolution of oil prices, as well as the evolution of the unemployment rate was because of oil prices which have decreased between 1996 and 2000. So changes in the indicators of economic growth are caused by fluctuations in oil prices. And the Granger causality test proves that oil prices cause CPI, exports and unemployment rate. In this case, Algeria must activate the policies of economic diversification and structural transformation to be independent of hydrocarbons , in addition it has to create a sustainable and high growth rates.
Keywords : macroeconomic indicators, oil prices, Algeria