Electric Energy Consumption Forecast And Analysis For Duzce Province

Authors : İrem Düzdar, İlayda Nur Taşcı

Pages : 133-157

Doi:10.19168/jyasar.1284302

View : 160 | Download : 115

Publication Date : 2025-01-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The aim of this study is to create the estimation models for the electrical energy consumption values for Duzce province of Turkey. It is proven that estimation models were established and analysed for the electrical energy consumption of Duzce between November 2019 and October 2021. The data was obtained monthly from EPİAŞ to create the dataset. Since the data analysed in two periods and contain seasonality, namely 12 months and 24 months, Fourier Analysis with the Least Squares Method and Winters’ Method were preferred as the estimation model. The evaluation of the Absolute Error Percentages (MAPE) between the models reveal that the Fourier Analysis shows performs poorer than the Winters\\\' Method. The Winters’ Method, which is actually a multiplicative model, gives a better performance in establishing an electrical energy consumption estimation model. According to the data obtained, the difference in absolute square errors between the two methods was found to be 0.0073. Even though the two estimation models don’t present a significant difference among each other, the analysis results show that the Winters’ Method is more preferable considering it gives better results in the electricity consumption demand estimation between November 2019 and October 2021 for Duzce province. This result can be used as an example showing that Winters\\\' Method will outperform the Fourier Analysis with LS Method in establishing electricity consumption estimation models in the future for Duzce province.
Keywords : Enerji tüketimi, Tahminleme, Winters’ yöntemi, Fourier Analizi, Zaman Serileri

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