Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16

Home Page
About
Submit A Journal
Submit A Conference
Submit Paper/Book
- Submit a Preprint
- Submit a Book
Contact

Black Sea Journal of Health Science
Volume:3 Issue:2
Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020

Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Turkey: March 16–28, 2020

Authors : Hasan ONDER

Pages : 27-30

View : 22 | Download : 9

Publication Date : 2020-04-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The trend of COVID-19 and its reproductive number should be well examined because the transmission potential of novel coronavirus can reach high values. In this study the early stage of COVID-19 in Turkey between March 16 and March 28, 2020 was examined. Generalized Logistic growth model, Richards Model, and sub-exponential growth models were compared to estimate the trend of disease. Results showed that the reproductive number was between 2.00 and 2.45 at interested period. The best fitting model has been determines as sub-exponential growth model with scaling of growth parameter of 0.91.
Keywords : COVID 19, Reproductive number, Growth curve, Turkey

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL

VIEW PAPER (PDF)

* There may have been changes in the journal, article,conference, book, preprint etc. informations. Therefore, it would be appropriate to follow the information on the official page of the source. The information here is shared for informational purposes. IAD is not responsible for incorrect or missing information.