ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Authors : Levent ÖZBEK, Hakan DEMİRTAŞ

Pages : 239-259

Doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307

View : 15 | Download : 10

Publication Date : 2021-09-29

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, cumulative and daily cases are estimated online using discrete-time Gompertz model insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(DTGM); and Adaptive Kalman Filter insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(AKF); based on the total COVID-19 cases between February 29-July 28, 2020 in USA, Germany, India, Russia, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Brazil. Employing the data collected between February 29 and July 28, 2020, it is showed that the DTGM in conjunction with AKF provides a good analysis tool for modeling the daily cases made using the in terms of mean square error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MSE);, mean absolute percentage error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MAPE);, and R^2.
Keywords : COVID 19, Gompertz models, adaptive Kalman filter