The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products of Turkey using Box-Jenkins method

Authors : Nadir ERSEN, İlker AKYÜZ, Bahadır Çağrı BAYRAM

Pages : 54-65

Doi:10.31195/ejejfs.502397

View : 35 | Download : 9

Publication Date : 2019-02-28

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, it is aimed to determine the most suitable time series models with Box-Jenkins method, which is the most widely used in prediction studies. Export and import values have been predicted by 2020 with the most suitable models. The data used in this study were obtained from the Turkey Statistical Institute. Data are monthly data covering from January 2003 to December 2014. Sum of Squared Errors insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(SSE); and Mean Squared Error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MSE); criteria were taken into consideration when selecting the best Box-Jenkins models. Also, in order to test the success of forecasting of the models, Root mean Error Square insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(RMSE);, Mean Absolute Error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MAE); and Mean Absolute Percentage Error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MAPE); were used. As a result of the analyzes, it was determined that the most suitable models for export and import data were ARIMA insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(2,1,0); insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0,0,1); 12 and ARIMAinsert ignore into journalissuearticles values(3,1,2);insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(1,0,1); 12 . It was predicted that the rate of exports meeting imports in paper and paper products of Turkey will be approximately 0.86 in 2020.
Keywords : Paper and paper products, Box Jenkins, Exports and Imports

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