The Effect of Economic Confidence Index and Dollar Exchange Rate on Bank and Credit Card Expenditures

Authors : Yasemin Karataş Elçiçek, Hasan Sezgin

Pages : 130-137

View : 49 | Download : 57

Publication Date : 2024-12-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In the wake of today’s technological opportunities that provide the necessary infrastructure for card use, the tendency towards expenditure transactions using bank and credit cards has increased. Although there are many factors that affect the expenditure amounts in question, two of these factors are confidence in the economy or expectations about the future of the economy and the value of the country\\\'s currency against other countries\\\' currencies. Therefore, the present study has been designed with the motive of determining the direction in which the economic confidence index and dollar exchange rate affect bank and credit card expenditure amounts. In this regard, this study seeks to examine the long/short term relationship between bank and credit card expenditures, economic confidence index and dollar exchange rate in Türkiye. The examination period of the study was determined as March 2014-March 2024, and bounds test (ARDL) based on distributed lag autoregressive model was used as the method. While performing the analysis, the appropriate model was identified following the determination of the appropriate lag length and diagnostic tests on the stability of the model, and then cointegration analysis was performed. Once the existence of cointegration relationship was determined, long-term and short-term coefficients were obtained, respectively. According to the results obtained from the analysis, bank and credit card expenditure amounts are positively affected by the dollar exchange rate in the long term and by the economic confidence index in the short term. It can be suggested that the results are in line with the expectations for the relevant period.
Keywords : Banka ve Kredi Kartı Harcamaları, Ekonomik Güven Endeksi, Dolar Kuru