The Fiscal Impact of E-Commerce in Türkiye: Evidence from the COVID-19 and Post-Pandemic Period

Authors : Ömer Esen, Cemre Çelik

Pages : 169-178

View : 118 | Download : 309

Publication Date : 2025-12-19

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study investigates the impact of e-commerce expenditures on central government tax revenues in Türkiye during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, employing quarterly data covering 2019:Q4–2025:Q2. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique, the results demonstrate that e-commerce expenditures exert a positive and statistically significant effect on tax revenues. Moreover, the Granger causality analysis reveals a unidirectional causal link running from e-commerce expenditures to tax revenues, with no feedback effect in the opposite direction. These findings emphasise the robustness of e-commerce as an alternative economic mechanism during times of crisis and indicate that its fiscal relevance is expected to expand further alongside the advancement of digital transformation. This paper recommends that policymakers take concrete steps to strengthen digital infrastructure, reduce informality, improve e-commerce taxation frameworks, and support the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These findings highlight the growing fiscal importance of the digital economy in supporting sustainable and stable public revenues.
Keywords : E-ticaret, Vergi Gelirleri, COVID-19, Dijital Dönüşüm, Türkiye

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