A REAL TURKEY DATA APPLICATION TO THE SEIR MODEL FOR TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE

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Mugla Journal of Science and Technology
Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2
A REAL TURKEY DATA APPLICATION TO THE SEIR MODEL FOR TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE

A REAL TURKEY DATA APPLICATION TO THE SEIR MODEL FOR TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE

Authors : Sevim Dolaşır, Osman Raşit Işık

Pages : 66-75

Doi:10.22531/muglajsci.1705165

View : 51 | Download : 149

Publication Date : 2025-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The SEIR mathematical model in the literature is applied to analyze the tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Turkey. It consists of four classes: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number of the SEIR model are given. The structural identifiability analysis of the model is conducted in the Maple program and also with the differential algebra method. As a result of the structural identifiability analysis, all parameters in the model are found as locally structurally identifiable, but aren’t found to be globally identifiable. In addition, if an additional parameter is known, all other parameters are obtained to be globally identifiable. The number of tuberculosis cases in Turkey from 2005 to 2016 is used to solve the parameter estimation problem. The practical identifiability of the model is examined using Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity analysis of the model is also studied. Matlab program is used to estimate the model parameters and perform practical identifiability analysis. It is concluded that three parameters μ,β and γ, except for the parameter ε, are all practically identifiable. As a result, the basic reproduction number calculated with the obtained values shows that tuberculosis disease will continue in Turkey.
Keywords : Parametre belirleme, Tüberküloz, Epidemik model, Yapısal tanımlanabilirlik, Pratik tanımlanabilirlik, Duyarlılık analizi

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