COMPARISON OF WIND-SPEED DISTRIBUTIONS UNDER A UNIFIED TURBINE FRAMEWORK: A PLANT-LEVEL POWER ANALYSIS

Authors : Murat Ozkut

Pages : 118-126

Doi:10.22531/muglajsci.1779320

View : 37 | Download : 172

Publication Date : 2025-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This paper presents a comparative framework for translating alternative wind-speed distributions into plant-level power and reliability metrics under a unified turbine framework. We compare three widely used distributions—Weibull, Gamma, and Birnbaum-Saunders (BS)—while keeping all engineering inputs fixed (turbine power curve, rated power, operational speeds, and availability p). For each distribution, we construct the single-turbine power distribution, incorporate availability, and obtain the aggregate plant distribution for N turbines via discrete convolution. Our analysis reveals that distributional choice substantially affects sizing predictions: Birnbaum-Saunders consistently yields the most conservative estimates, requiring 30–70% more turbines than Weibull to achieve equivalent reliability targets across tested scenarios. Weibull provides the most optimistic predictions, while Gamma occupies an intermediate position. These differences are most pronounced at mid-range capacity thresholds (2–7 MW for N=10), where practical planning decisions occur. For moderate reliability targets, distribution choice alone can shift minimum fleet size requirements by 2–4 turbines, with direct implications for capital investment and risk assessment. We provide sensitivity analyses, mean power comparisons, and implementation details to ensure reproducibility.
Keywords : Rüzgar hızı dağılımları, Weibull dağılımı, Gamma dağılımı, Birnbaum-Saunders dağılımı, Rüzgar santrali güvenilirliği, Aşma olasılığı

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