Forecasting of Rice Self-Sufficiency in the Benin Republic Using ARIMA Model

Authors : Oscar AKOUEGNONHOU, Nevin DEMİRBAŞ

Pages : 204-214

View : 65 | Download : 39

Publication Date : 2019-12-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model); to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 47%, 56%, 58%, 59% and 68% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.
Keywords : ARIMA model, İmportation, Riceproduction, Riceconsumption, Self sufficiency, Benin Republic

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