Relationship between Tourism Incomes, Economic Growth, and Exchange Rate in Türkiye: Economic Growth Based Tourism Incomes in the Shadow of Covid-19

Authors : Barış Can Kızıl, Dilek Çetin

Pages : 1441-1467

Doi:10.25229/beta.1702310

View : 115 | Download : 395

Publication Date : 2025-10-29

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The main objective of this study is to empirically test the cointegrated relationship between tourism revenues, economic growth and exchange rate in Türkiye. The difference of this study from other studies is that it takes into account the shock effect by including the Covid-19 period in the analysis period. In our study, the ARDL model developed by Peseran, Shin, Smith is estimated using time series data for the period 2003Q1-2024Q3. The dependent variable is tourism revenues, while the independent variables are Gross Domestic Product and real exchange rate. In addition, a dummy variable is used to show the Covid-19 effect. The long-run coefficients are positive and significant. The long-run coefficient of the Covid-19 dummy variable is negative and significant as expected. Accordingly, a 1% increase in economic growth and exchange rate during the Covid-19 period increased tourism revenues by 1.49% and 1.25%, respectively, while shocks arising from Covid-19 decreased tourism revenues by 1.41%. Accordingly, 0.23% of the shocks to growth and exchange rate can be eliminated within the same period. Finally, the empirical findings suggest that the economic growth-based tourism hypothesis is valid for Turkiye.
Keywords : Turizm Geliri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Covid-19, Şoklar, ARDL

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