Energy Imports, Economic Growth, And the Current Account Deficit in Türkiye: Evidence From 1974–2023

Authors : Banu Erkök

Pages : 1797-1815

Doi:10.30586/pek.1779052

View : 95 | Download : 683

Publication Date : 2025-12-23

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this paper, we explore the relationship between energy imports, economic growth, and the current account deficit in Türkiye from 1974 to 2023. As an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, Türkiye has consistently faced current account imbalances, which raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of financing trade deficits and fulfilling external obligations without accumulating excessive foreign debt or reducing its international reserves. Using annual time series data, we employ the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and Lee-Strazicich (LS) unit root tests to evaluate the stationarity of the variables. Additionally, we used symmetric and time-varying causality tests developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J to investigate both stable and evolving causal relationships among the variables. We further employ a VAR framework to examine the relationship between energy imports, economic growth, and the current account deficit in Türkiye. The findings indicate that a decrease in the current account balance causes an increase in energy imports. Namely, an improvement in the current account balance leads to a subsequent rise in energy imports with a three-year lag.
Keywords : Enerji ithalatı, Cari açık, Ekonomik büyüme

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL