Navigating Uncertainty: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Türkiye’s Tourism (2013-2023)

Authors : Nur Çelik İlal, Murat Sakal, Ece Kırlı Özen, Emine Yılmaz

Pages : 355-376

Doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.01.15

View : 139 | Download : 184

Publication Date : 2026-01-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study investigates the causal relationship between tourism revenues and the real effective exchange rate within the context of economic and social crises. Monthly data from 2013-2023 were analysed using structural break tests and Granger causality analysis. The findings show that the July 15 coup attempt, the Pastor Brunson crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the relationship in various ways. No immediate short-term causality was identified; tourism revenues were more affected by security concerns, seasonal patterns, and global crises. The exchange rate advantage diminished during crises and vanished during the pandemic. The study emphasises the need for greater political stability and effective crisis management in tourism policy, and offers key recommendations.
Keywords : COVID-19, Krizler, Granger Nedensellik Analizi, Reel Döviz Kuru, Turizm Gelirleri

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