THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION EXPENDITURES ON FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME IN TURKİYE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Authors : Hakan Öndes
Pages : 387-411
Doi:10.24889/ifede.1704760
View : 75 | Download : 97
Publication Date : 2025-12-31
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :This study endeavors to conduct a comprehensive empirical investigation into the impact of transportation expenditures on Türkiye’s foreign trade performance, within the context of its strategic geographical positioning and geopolitical significance. The research is structured around the following core inquiries: To what extent do transportation expenditures influence Türkiye’s foreign trade volume? What is the nature and direction of the relationship between transportation investments and foreign trade dynamics? Focusing on the Turkish economy over the 1980–2024 period, the study incorporates control variables such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, and relevant dummy variables. Methodologically, it employs the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Fourier ADL) model and the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test to capture potential structural breaks and non-linearities over time. Empirical findings indicate that expenditures across all modes of transportation exert a statistically significant positive effect on foreign trade volume. Notably, a bidirectional causal relationship is established between expenditures in road and maritime transport and foreign trade volume, suggesting mutual reinforcement. The expansion of trade volume is likely to incentivize the adoption of new and more efficient transportation modalities, thereby fostering reciprocal growth in logistics and transport sectors. Moreover, the reduction of transportation costs is contingent upon the integration of advanced technological systems and the implementation of efficient supply chain management practices. In this regard, the development of a resilient and modern transportation infrastructure emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing Türkiye’s trade capacity, which, in turn, facilitates the evolution of sophisticated multimodal transport systems and comprehensive logistics networks.
Keywords : Ulaştırma Harcamaları, Dış Ticaret Hacmi, Fourier Zaman Serileri Analizi, Türkiye Ekonomisi

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