Long-Term (1984–2024) Land Surface Temperature (LST) Trends at Iztuzu Beach (Dalyan, Türkiye): A Decadal Analysis

Authors : Ahmet Karakoç

Pages : 235-251

Doi:10.51800/ecd.1800155

View : 137 | Download : 212

Publication Date : 2025-12-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Long-term variations in land surface temperature (LST) can significantly influence the ecological functioning of coastal habitats and the reproductive dynamics of species inhabiting these environments. This study examined LST trends at Iztuzu Beach (Dalyan), one of the ecologically critical coastal areas in the Mediterranean basin and a key nesting habitat for the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta), over the period 1984–2024. Landsat data with 30 m resolution covering May–August were used, comprising 314 satellite images corresponding to 12 decadal periods (early, middle, and late 10-day intervals of each month). Analyses included zonal Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression at the regional scale and pixel-level Mann–Kendall tests with Sen’s Slope statistics. Evaluations conducted across 429 stable land pixels revealed positive trends in 9 out of 12 decadal periods. The most pronounced increases occurred in mid-May and late August. Warming trends observed in late August were statistically significant at the 90% confidence level (Sen’s slope ~0.118 °C·yr⁻¹, u = 2.62). Although mid-May exhibited high slope values, high interannual variance limited its spatial significance. Localized warming patterns in the southeastern part of the beach corresponded to areas with intense anthropogenic activity, while notable warming trends were also observed in the central section of the beach. The findings highlight that long-term temperature changes in coastal ecosystems can directly affect habitat integrity and the life cycles of species.
Keywords : Yer yüzey sıcaklığı (YYS) eğilimleri, Dekadal iklim analizi, Kıyı kumulu termal dinamikleri, Deniz kaplumbağası yuvalama habitatları, İztuzu plajı (Dalyan)

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