The Nature and Identification of CBRN Risks in the VUCA World and a Case Study: Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Authors : Neslihan Külahlıoğlu, Fatma Cengiz, Tamer Işın, Zişan Cihangir Işın, Mustafa Kemal Topcu

Pages : 1179-1206

Doi:10.35341/afet.1746055

View : 133 | Download : 122

Publication Date : 2025-11-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) events require a special approach in risk management due to their unpredictability and devastating effects in a VUCA(Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) world. In this study, different risk identification methodologies are analyzed comparatively, especially in the context of the severe accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. The effectiveness of the VUCA Meter, the Cynefin Framework, and the Ibn Sina Risk Matrix (ISRM) methodologies for identifying and managing unforeseen high-impact events, referred to as Black Swans, is evaluated. Based on the results of the aftermath of the Fukushima incident, the analysis of a total of 37 risk factors revealed that ISRM has a higher capacity to identify or capture Black Swan risks compared to other methodologies. By emphasizing the importance of multidimensional approaches in risk identification processes, the study contributes to the improvement of risk management, especially in critical infrastructures such as nuclear facilities.
Keywords : CBRN, Cynefin Framework, Ibn Sina Risk Matrix, Risk Analysis, VUCA Meter

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