Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Employment, Exchange Rate and Oil Price: A U.S. State-Level Time Series Analysis

Authors : Bradley T EWİNG, Benhua YANG

Pages : 1-22

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Publication Date : 2009-04-21

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This paper investigates the time series properties of U.S. state-level manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment and two economy-wide variables: real effective exchange rate and real oil price. Examining the 1990 to 2005 period, cointegration tests and error-correction models reveal a long run relationship between manufacturing employment and the exchange rate in eleven states, while no evidence of this relationship between non-manufacturing employment and the exchange rate was detected. Additionally, in the vast majority of states, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment appear to have a long-run equilibrium relationship with the real price of oil.
Keywords : Manufacturing and Non manufacturing, Employment, Economics