Flood Frequency Estimation in Data-Scarce Basins: Statistical vs. Synthetic Methods in Eastern Turkey

Authors : Ufuk Kizil, Reşat Acar, Burak Çırağ

Pages : 520-534

View : 111 | Download : 55

Publication Date : 2025-08-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters that cause loss of life and property. One of the most critical steps in mitigating the damages of this disaster is the correct sizing of flood protection structures. This requires reliable flood quantile estimates. In this study, flood repetition flows were calculated and compared with four different methods in a basin containing six water sources in Ağrı province, especially for D21A141 Yapılıköy Stream Gauging Station (SGS). The methods used are Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA), Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA), Mockus Method and DSİ Synthetic Method. It was observed that RFFA provides more reliable and balanced results by using data from the sub-basins. Despite its synthetic nature, Mockus and DSİ Synthetic methods yielded results consistent with RFFA. FFA, on the other hand, produced low values, especially at high return periods. The findings obtained can contribute to engineering practices in flood-prone areas and support local governments in making more informed decisions. Considering climate change and increasing flood hazard, it is of great importance to disseminate such analyses.
Keywords : Taşkın tekerrür debisi, Akım rejimi, Bölgesel taşkın frekans analizi, Tekerrür süresi, Akım gözlem istasyonu, Sentetik yöntemler

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