Assessing The Exports And Commodity Prices Linkage Amid Uncertainity

Authors : Alper Yılmaz

Pages : 134-156

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Publication Date : 2025-01-29

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this article, the impact of commodity prices on export volume under uncertainty shocks has been examined for the period of 1990Q1-2022Q4. According to the findings, the Maki cointegration test with multiple breaks indicates that all variables are in a co-integration relationship. The cointegration coefficients suggest global uncertainties and commodity prices have a adverse impact on exports, and cause to fluctuations. But they have lasted nearly six querters according to impulse-response functions from the VAR model and than it disappeared. We also estimate Vector Error Correction model and the findings indicate that uncertainties and commodity prices have significant and negative effect on exports in the long run. We lastly proved that there is one-way causality, goes from uncertainty toward commodity prices and exports marktes in the long term according to Frequency Domain test. In this frame, we need to multidimensional and comprehensive policy measures to reduce uncertainty in the global markets.
Keywords : Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizlikler, İhracat, Emtea Fiyatları, Zaman Serisi Ekonometrisi