Trend Analysis of Drought Severity in Southeast Region of Türkiye

Authors : İslam Yaşa, Turgay Partal

Pages : 681-695

Doi:10.21597/jist.1330260

View : 135 | Download : 49

Publication Date : 2024-06-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The study of drought, one of the many problems caused by climate change, enables the planning of water use and water resources. The increase or decrease in drought severity, which is one of the drought parameters, is an important source of information in terms of predetermining the consequences that may arise due to drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time periods with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) using long-term precipitation data of four stations in the Tigris River basin from 1960 to 2022. Drought duration and severity series were obtained from drought index values, and the trends of drought severity series were calculated with Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) tests. According to the results, the ITA test was found to be more sensitive in detecting trends in drought severity series compared to the MK test. According to the MK test, drought did not show a significant increase or decrease. On the other hand, according to the ITA test, drought increased at 1- and 12-month scales at Siirt and Batman stations, respectively, and at 1- and 12-month scales at Diyarbakır station. Drought increased in all time periods at Mardin station.
Keywords : Kuraklık analizi, Trend analizi, Kuraklık şiddeti, Standart Yağış İndeksi, Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi, Mann Kendall

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