ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN İSTANBUL CITY INDEX WITH HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

Home Page
About
Submit A Journal
Submit A Conference
Submit Paper/Book
- Submit a Preprint
- Submit a Book
Contact

Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi
Volume:41 Issue:2
ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN İSTANBUL CITY INDEX WITH HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN İSTANBUL CITY INDEX WITH HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

Pages : 319-337

View : 68 | Download : 104

Publication Date : 2020-01-06

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :City indexes are not only a significant indicator of regional development but also a very useful guide for decision makers interested in investment to a specific region. Different city indexes have been calculated by İstanbul Stock Exchange insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ISE); in order to reflect the financial performances of cities. The main purpose of this study is to predict the future behaviors of İstanbul city index which has the highest share of stocks being traded on ISE. To achieve this purpose, an important pattern recognition technique that produces reliable estimates, Hidden Markov model insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(HMM);, is suggested. The model is constructed with four exogenous factors such as exchange rate, interest rate, money supply and consumer price index and the validity of model is shown by one-, two – and three-months ahead successful prediction results.
Keywords : City Indexes, İstanbul City Index, Hidden Markov Model, Future Predictions, Index Behavior

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL

* There may have been changes in the journal, article,conference, book, preprint etc. informations. Therefore, it would be appropriate to follow the information on the official page of the source. The information here is shared for informational purposes. IAD is not responsible for incorrect or missing information.