Multi-scale remote sensing of desertification trends and climate–vegetation interactions in the Konya basin, Türkiye (2000–2025)

Authors : Ahmet Emin Karkınlı

Pages : 1690-1699

Doi:10.28948/ngumuh.1791557

View : 84 | Download : 123

Publication Date : 2025-10-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Konya Basin, a key agro-ecosystem in Turkey, is increasingly vulnerable to desertification. This study assesses vegetation dynamics and climatic drivers between 2000 and 2025 using the Google Earth Engine platform. MODIS time-series (NDVI and SAVI) were analyzed to map long-term trends, and medium-resolution Landsat data identified degradation hotspots. Our results reveal an apparent contradiction. The basin shows a subtle greening trend, particularly in croplands (+0.0042 NDVI units yr⁻¹). However, medium-resolution Landsat data simultaneously indicate degradation hotspots covering a total of 3471.93 km². Croplands account for 21.4% of these areas, and about 70% occur below 1000 m, where groundwater-dependent irrigation is most intense. Climatic drivers clarify this dynamic. A significant warming trend of 0.05 °C yr⁻¹ (p = 0.0102) was detected, while vegetation correlated positively with precipitation (r = 0.50, p < 0.01) but showed no significant relationship with temperature (r = 0.09, p = 0.66). Spatial maps confirmed precipitation control in northern rainfed grasslands and temperature stress in irrigated southern plains. This multi-scale approach shows that basin-wide averages can be misleading, as modest greening coexists with local degradation. The findings emphasize the need for spatially explicit data to guide targeted land and water management policies to mitigate desertification risks in this vital region.
Keywords : Çölleşme, Uzaktan algılama, NDVI/SAVI, İklim-vejetasyon ilişkileri, Hotspot analizi

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