Neoclassical Geo-strategic Analysis of Türkiye’s Military Operations in Syria and Iraq Till Assad’s Fall

This article examines and evaluates the reasons, strategic logic, outcomes, and effectiveness of Türkiye\\\'s military operations in northern Syria and Iraq until Assad\\\'s fall in 2024 as part of its campaign against Kurdish militant factions, particularly the Kurdistan Workers\\\' Party (PKK). Adopting a neoclassical geostrategic framework, paper treats environmental realities and elite perceptions of the threats and opportunities associated with them as central factors explaining elites\\\' strategic decisions. In this way, it explores the evolution of Türkiye’s military confrontation with PKK and associated groups along with Justice and Development Party (JDP) elites\\\' perceptions of threats and opportunities and ideological leanings of neo-Ottomanism and Turkish-Islamic nationalism. Relying on extensive examination of primary and secondary data, the article argues that Türkiye’s operations in Syria and Iraq are mainly a calculated response to an insecure border reality marked by the expansion of PKK, the humanitarian crisis in Syria, and regional instability amid the Arab Spring. Thus, it is argued that these operations are the results of a preventive strategic logic aimed at countering separatism and terrorism threats, under the imperative of \\\"better now than later\\\" in both Syria and Iraq.