Assessment of Human Error Probability in Adverse-Weather Deck Operations Using the Success Likelihood Index Method

Authors : Şaban Emre Kartal

Pages : 905-915

Doi:10.53501/rteufemud.1823844

View : 43 | Download : 133

Publication Date : 2025-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Maritime transport remains essential to global trade, yet seafaring is still among the most hazardous occupations. Adverse weather imposes severe operational and cognitive challenges, especially during deck work requiring coordination and situational awareness. This study employs the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to quantify Human Error Probability (HEP) in deck operations conducted under heavy weather. Expert judgments from five maritime professionals were used to rate and weight five Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs): leadership and supervision, procedural arrangements, risk acceptance, experience, and time pressure. Findings indicate that experience and leadership&supervision most strongly influence task success, while bridge–deck communication showed the lowest Success Likelihood Index. These results highlight that communication-intensive tasks are highly vulnerable to wind, motion, and noise disruptions during heavy weather. The study concludes that maritime safety relies not only on procedural discipline but also on adaptive leadership, experience, and resilient communication. Integrating these aspects into training and safety management could significantly enhance human reliability in adverse operational environments.
Keywords : deniz taşımacılığı, insan faktörü, risk değerlendirmesi, ağır-hava

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