REJİM DEĞİŞİMİ ALTINDA TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNİN VE SANAYİ SEKTÖRÜNÜN DEVRESEL HAREKETLERİNİN ANALİZİ

Authors : Şenay AÇIKGÖZ

Pages : 135-151

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Publication Date : 2016-07-25

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This paper analyzes the time series behavior of the annual growth rate of Turkey’s GDP and growth rate of its industrial sector GDP’s. Drawing on the work of Hamilton insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(1989);, we examine the two series for evidence of periodic, discrete shifts in the mean using a two-state Markov regime switching model. The results provide strong evidence that shifts in the mean of the growth process both general and sectoral is a prominent feature of the data. According to probability results, there is one switch between the regimes in general growth process and there are five switches in industrial sector growth process.
Keywords : İktisadi büyüme, Rejim değişikliği, Konjonktür dalgaları

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