Ekonomik Simülasyon ve Bir Uygulama

Authors : Ayşe KAZAN

Pages : 19-34

View : 44 | Download : 12

Publication Date : 2001-06-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Types of the tests used for determining the accuracy level of a model can change from one scientific area to another. On the other hand, regardless from the scientific area, a criterion that can be used for this purpose is the ability of the model to reflect the realized facts or the facts whose results are known already. Naturally it is expected that if a model reflects the realized facts successfully it can also reflect the unrealized ones satisfactorily. This process is called “ simulation in literature. Simulation can be used in different ways for various scientific areas and applications. Econometric simulation is to observe the results of an econometric model whose paremeters were estimated previously.In this study, an econometric model for Turkish economy is established and the paremeters of the model are estimated for two different functional forms, namely linear and nonlinear. From an econometric point of view, both models exhibited statistically acceptable properties. Morever, whith few exceptions paremeterestimates were in agreement with ex-post economic expectations. However, acording to simulation results, linear model produced somewhat poorer forecasts in comporison to the nonlinear model.
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