AN ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING LONG-RUN PRICE PERFORMANCE IN INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS ON BORSA ISTANBUL

Authors : Fevziye Gözde Gökpınar, Guven Sayılgan

Pages : 779-797

Doi:10.17130/ijmeb.1501169

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Publication Date : 2025-06-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic factors affecting the three-year market-adjusted cumulative abnormal returns of 106 stocks that conducted initial public offerings (IPOs) on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) between 2010 and 2018, using balanced panel data analysis. The analysis covers the years 2010-2021. Random effects are observed in panel data analysis, and the Random Effects model is deemed appropriate. According to the results of the Random Effects model, there is a positive relationship between long-term stock returns and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), gold prices, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While a positive relationship between the CCI and GDP with long-term stock returns is expected, the negative relationship between gold prices and stock returns contradicts expectations. This finding can be interpreted as stock prices being influenced more by investor sentiment or international developments rather than domestic investor demand. The aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by examining the macroeconomic factors affecting the long-term returns of stocks that have conducted initial public offerings (IPOs) on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) using updated data.
Keywords : İlk Halka Arz, Uzun Dönem Performans, Makroekonomik Faktörler, Panel Veri Analizi

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