Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Food Security in Nigeria

Authors : Adeyinka AROYEHUN

Pages : 232-240

Doi:10.47115/bsagriculture.1232578

View : 46 | Download : 10

Publication Date : 2023-05-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Food production in Nigeria has not matched with the rate of population growth leading to reduction of national food independence and self-reliance. As a result, Nigeria is facing serious food insecurity. Therefore, this research examined the impacts of climate change and population growth on food security in Nigeria. Annual time-series of food security insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(proxy of food production index);, annual rainfall, annual temperature, population growth rate, urban population rate and agricultural land used from 1980 to 2019 were used. The research used Augmented Dickey-Fuller insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ADF); unit root test, Vector Autoregressive insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(VAR); model, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correlation Models insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(VECM); were used to analyze the data. ADF unit root test result shows that all variables were completely stationary at the first different orders Iinsert ignore into journalissuearticles values(1); at both at intercept and intercept with trend at level of significance of 1%. Three insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(3); lags were conclusively selects as the optimum lag in the VAR model. The result of the estimation indicates that the Johansen cointegration shows an existence of long-run relationship among the variables used in the study. The result of the VECM estimation shows that rainfall, temperatures, population growth rate and agricultural land used were negatively significantly related to food security at various levels of significance insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(1%, 5% and 10%);. At the long-run all the variables were adversely related to food security in Nigeria. The coefficient of multiple determinations insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(R2); indicates about 91%, the adjusted R2 of 0.86 was obtained and Durbin-Watson of 2.1 was obtained which implies that the tools were good fit to estimates the data. Decomposition of variance shows dwindling in food security. The research therefore recommends public enlightenment campaign on birth control; and appropriate climate change adaptation methods should be adopted to enhance food security in Nigeria among others.
Keywords : Agricultural land, climate change, food security, Nigeria, population growth

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