The Relationship Between Consumer Loans and the Macroeconomy in the Turkish Banking Sector (2007-2023)

Authors : Sultan Sarı

Pages : 229-255

Doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2026.01.10

View : 128 | Download : 291

Publication Date : 2026-01-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Consumer loans are financial instruments that enable individuals to finance needs such as housing, automobiles, education, healthcare, holidays, and daily expenses. These instruments both influence and are influenced by the macroeconomy. This study explores the relationship between consumer loans and macroeconomic factors. Specifically, it examines the connection between consumer loans, economic growth, and credit risk using sector and bank group data on consumer loans, non-performing loan ratios, GDP, interest rates on consumer loans, CPI, real exchange rate, and money supply from 2007 to 2023, employing ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and Granger causality analyses. The findings indicate that while consumer loans support short-term growth, they do not promote long-term growth, except for consumer loans from foreign bank groups. Nevertheless, the role of consumer loans in reducing credit risk through distribution remains significant.
Keywords : Tüketici Kredileri, Makroekonomi, Büyüme, Kredi Riski, ARDL Yöntemi

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