Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Asset Prıices in the Turkish Economy

Authors : Sevim Nurbanu Yıldız, Üzeyir Aydın

Pages : 281-298

Doi:10.62001/gsijses.1711037

View : 47 | Download : 57

Publication Date : 2025-06-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study aims to examine the dynamic relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the Turkish economy. Asset price inflation refers to a situation in which the market values of financial assets rise faster than the general price level and can create significant effects on economic growth and financial stability. In particular, asset price increases driven by low interest rates may influence consumption and investment expenditures through the wealth effect, but at the same time, they may also pose risks of financial fragility.Within this scope, an empirical analysis was conducted using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model for the 2011–2024 period, based on key variables such as monetary aggregates, the central bank funding rate, housing price index, exchange rate, BIST 100 index, and gold prices. The findings reveal that the effects of monetary policy shocks on asset prices have varied over time and that these effects have become more pronounced during periods of economic stagnation and uncertainty, particularly during global crises and structural disruptions. The results indicate that asset prices should be incorporated into the monetary policy framework to ensure financial stability.
Keywords : Varlık Fiyatları, Para Politikası, Finansal İstikrar, TVP-VAR, Türkiye

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