ANALYZING SECTORAL AND AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH PATTERNS IN TÜRKİYE: A MIXED-EFFECTS MODELLING APPROACH

Authors : Abdulmecit Yıldırım

Pages : 708-723

Doi:10.54282/inijoss.1755404

View : 109 | Download : 195

Publication Date : 2025-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study utilized growth curve analysis, which is a mixed-effects modeling approach, to examine regional and provincial income convergence in Türkiye. Unlike traditional convergence tests, growth curve analysis provides the opportunity to track changes over time in more detail. The main objective of this study is to examine regional income convergence by analyzing total and sectoral GDP growth trends in the NUTS-2 regions and provinces of Türkiye from 2013 to 2019, as well as to investigate the sources of these inequalities. Descriptive statistics reveal significant disparities in public investment and economic output across provinces. The empirical findings show that although both aggregate and sectoral GDP grew during the study period, significant differences were observed in the initial GDP levels across regions. The incorporation of region-level controls into the models improved the models’ fitness, which reflects meaningful variations in initial GDP levels. However, in general, time-region interaction terms are not statistically significant, indicating that most regions experienced similar growth trajectories. These results underline the need for region and sector-specific development policies to reduce structural disparities and to achieve more balanced regional development. Further research could explore province- and region-specific factors that contribute to the persistence of income inequality among provinces and regions.
Keywords : Bölgesel büyüme, Gelir yakınsaması, Karma etkili modelleme, Büyüme eğrisi analizi

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