Development of Trend analysis-based Forecast Models for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Consumption

Authors : Nokta Nurani Bektaş, İzzet Karakurt, Gökhan Aydın

Pages : 1325-1340

Doi:10.31466/kfbd.1667202

View : 75 | Download : 82

Publication Date : 2025-09-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, trend analysis-based forecast models were developed for Türkiye using total population (TP) and fossil fuel consumption (FFC) as independent and dependent variables from 1965 to 2023. The developed models were then verified by various statistical approaches such as determination coefficient (R2), F – and t tests and predicted vs actual data. Additionally, forecasting accuracies of the developed models were measured using the indicators of mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, Türkiye’s FFC was projected from 2025 to 2035 using the proposed models. The results reveal that the future FFC of Türkiye can be successfully forecasted with one of the proposed models. Furthermore, the forecasting results evidently show that substantial increases are expected in Türkiye\\\'s future FFC.
Keywords : Fosil yakıt tüketimi, Trend analizi, Model, Tahmin, Türkiye

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