Modeling Vehicle Number Change and Carbon Footprint Trends in Turkey (2030–2040) Using Polynomial Regression

Authors : Hüseyin Söyler, Ahmet Karaoğlu

Pages : 133-146

Doi:10.51513/jitsa.1695061

View : 65 | Download : 595

Publication Date : 2025-10-25

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study analyzes the changes in registered vehicle types in Turkey from 2004 to 2024 and presents forecasts for vehicle numbers and transportation-related carbon footprint for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Using a polynomial regression-based time series model, future trends for gasoline, diesel, and LPG-powered vehicles are projected, and their environmental impacts are evaluated under three distinct policy scenarios. The results show that if fossil-fueled vehicles continue to dominate, the carbon footprint will increase significantly; however, a rapid transition to electric and hybrid vehicles can substantially reduce emissions. The scenario-based projections indicate that advanced sustainability policies could achieve meaningful reductions in emissions by 2040. This study offers evidence-based policy recommendations to support Turkey’s pathway toward its 2053 Net Zero Emission target, emphasizing the critical role of low-carbon mobility transitions.
Keywords : Sürdürülebilir ulaşım, karbon ayak izi, elektrikli araçlar, zaman serisi analizi, Polinom Regresyon modeli, Türkiye ulaşım sektörü.

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