Determinants of Net Migration Trends In Van Province, Türki̇ye From 2008 To 2022: A Statistical Analysis

Authors : Olgun Özdemir, Zafer Ağyar, Mehmet Şaban Ucari

Pages : 1-33

View : 140 | Download : 42

Publication Date : 2025-06-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In Türkiye\\\'s Eastern Anatolia region, Van province plays a crucial role as an important migration hub in the area. This study examines migration patterns in Van between 2008 and 2022 using a variety of statistical analyses. The study aims to identify key determinants and affecting factors of net migration patterns of Van province with statistical methods and to predict future migration trends. The data were obtained using annual population statistics, migration movements, and socio-economic and environmental indicators provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and other institutions. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, geographic information systems (GIS) analysis, and cluster analysis methods were used in the analysis. Multiple correlation analysis (MCA) showed population growth and out-migration as the top factors influencing Van province\\\'s net migration, while also demonstrating in-migration, cultivated agricultural areas, and arrivals to accommodation facilities had a moderate impact on net migration. The multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis found positive net migration growth is associated with population growth rate, average temperature, in-migration and annual number of visitors. However, regional employment negatively impacts net migration. The hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) results showed similar migration trends between 2008 and 2013. Out-migration and tourism were observed to increase in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. While the years 2017, 2019, and 2022 exhibited climatic and agricultural similarities, the migration patterns differed in 2019 compared to the other years. This study statistically analyzes internal migration data from Van province to identify factors affecting net migration. The findings provide key insights to better understand migration trends and develop policies. The model can inform policy decisions by guiding regional planners and decision-makers on future provincial migration dynamics.
Keywords : göçün belirleyicileri, İç Göç, Net Göç, Van İli, İstatistiksel Analiz

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL