ON THE BRINK OF A NEW WORLD ORDER: TURKISH CAPITAL MARKETS FACING ASYMMETRIC SHOCKS OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS

Authors : Merve Tuncay

Pages : 219-237

Doi:10.52122/nisantasisbd.1807876

View : 76 | Download : 254

Publication Date : 2025-12-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The economic and political instabilities have made the impact of uncertainties in capital markets more salient, and affected investors\\\' decisions since the pandemic period. Turkish capital markets have been operating under the pressure of various uncertainties stemming from both domestic and foreign political or economic dynamics as well. Hence, it is quite crucial for policymakers and investors to reveal the effects of increasing uncertainties on the markets during this global transformation process in order to take the right steps in such an environment. In accordance with the aim of this study, the asymmetric effects of 10-year government bond yields, uncertainties in gold (ounce) and Brent crude oil prices besides the geopolitical uncertainty index (GPR), trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) and climate policy uncertainty index (CPU) on selected stock market indices are investigated by the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for the 2015-2025 period. According to the findings, the selected uncertainty factors have asymmetric effects on stock market indices in different directions and to different magnitude. The findings are expected to provide not only a meaningful contribution to the existing literature but also provide a framework for the position of the Turkish stock markets during the transformation process.
Keywords : Küresel belirsizlik unsurları, finansal piyasalar, asimetrik şoklar, Borsa İstanbul, NARDL

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