Effects of Turkey’s Energy Dependence and Political Risk in Foreign Trade Measurement with ‘VAR Analysis’

Authors : Tuğçenur Ekinci Furtana

Pages : 563-579

View : 83 | Download : 135

Publication Date : 2020-10-15

Abstract :Turkey is a country dependent on foreign energy and the various policies that improve energy supply security, it has been trying to deal with international and pipeline projects. It is taking full advantage of the fact that it already has neighbors rich in energy resources. Who do not have the energy sources that can be self-sufficient for Turkey to develop these policies is of utmost importance. Access to energy and energy security are essential for production. Because the development of the country depends on the increase in production, exports of the products produced, that is, the development of foreign trade. Turkey is faced with a wide variety of political risk while creating these policies. These risks include various terrorist incidents, instability and elections in the country, geographic risks, geopolitical risks, internal conflict situations, and military coup threats. For this purpose, monthly data were collected for the period 2002/01 - 2019/08. DTH, Turkey’s monthly foreign trade figures, MY, It called mineral fuels in total energy imports of Turkey, the PRS, Turkey’s monthly political risk values were used. According to the study, the relationship between foreign trade volume, Turkey’s energy dependence and Political risk is measured by the VAR model.
Keywords : Energy Dependence, Political Risk, Foreign Trade, Var Analysis

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