A Climate Change Impact: Variation In Precipitation Patterns, And Increased Drought Risk In Turkey

Authors : İsmail DABANLI

Pages : 193-202

Doi:10.16984/saufenbilder.467119

View : 18 | Download : 11

Publication Date : 2019-04-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Since the industrial revolution, temperature averages have been changing both in local and global scale. These variations are related with the climate and global warming changes. Such typical changes insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(i.e., increasing heavy precipitation, and declined light or total precipitation); are also observed in Turkey. As expected, decreased precipitation usually promotes drought conditions, and can cause extended dry days or periods. Thus, strong relationship can be considered between precipitation scarcity and drought conditions. In this study, changes in precipitation insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(i.e., total, bottom/lowest and extreme 10%);, dry days length, dry spells insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(>6 days); and drought severity risk based on Standardized Precipitation Index insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(SPI); and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(SPEI); were evaluated quantitatively over Turkey from 1971 to 2000 with regards to climate changes. Trend analysis is performed by using Innovative-Şen analysis insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ITA); method to evaluate trend behavior of precipitation, lengths of dry days and spells. Results show that changes in dry days insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ΔDD/ΔT); converge to insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(-2% ±3%);/0C, while changes in prolonged dry spells change insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ΔDS/ΔT); are comparatively higher insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(3% ±5%);/0C. For precipitations, mean values of ΔP/ΔT converges to constant value as      insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(-6% ±8%);/0C, insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0% ±2%);/0C and insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(-1% ±4%);/0C for total, top 10% heavy and lowest 10% precipitations, respectively. These changes are supported by ITA outputs. All results support and point out that prolonged drought risk frequency and severity has been increasing.
Keywords : Drought risk, dry days, dry spells, Turkey, precipitation patterns